Which Way Will Bitcoin Prices Head Now?
In my 12 April article, titled “A Deep Dive into Why I Was Wrong,” I explored in hindsight the only significantly wrong prediction about BTC price I’ve made in three years. In that article, I stated that the entire premise of my BTC price prediction for Q1 2023 was completely invalidated by constant lies from the global financial apparatus about their continually provided false dates of cryptocurrency regulations in the EU. I offered my BTC price predictions for Q1 2023 in Q4 2022 that were 100% contingent upon EU cryptocurrency regulations being passed at the end of 2022, regulations that were first announced with an effective date of June 2022, then delayed to November 2022, then delayed to February 2023, and then ludicrously delayed yet again until 17 April 2023.
Thus, I’m never adverse to exploring the reasons why I’m wrong about certain things as there is a definitive process behind the madness regarding my analysis and therefore, it is quite easy to understand why the process did not yield the outcomes I believed would happen with a dissection of the process. If I were simply pulling price points out of a hat, which I believe many of the most prominent analysts do (recall end of year $130,000 to $300,000 BTC price predictions offered in 2021 which seemed to be pulled out of a hat), then there are no rational explanations to explain why such targets were wrong. However, if we use a rational process to determine predicted asset price movements, all we need to do is to dissect the process to understand where we went wrong. To use an analogy, if a hundred bettors placed a cumulative $50M bet placed on Lionel Messi scoring the winning goal against France in the last World Cup only to learn that Messi suffered a broken leg the day before the World Cup and could not play, then to understand why that bet needs to be completely invalidated is quite easy. The bet on Argentina winning was not based upon Argentina being a better overall team than France but on the greatness of one single player. Remove the player from the equation, and the predicted bet crumbles.
No Harm, No Foul, as I Issued No Buy/Sell Opinions to Accompany My Last BTC Price Prediction
As my entire Q1 2023 BTC price prediction was 100% contingent upon the November 2022 regulation deadline being true, then of course, without the entire basis upon which my BTC price prediction was based ever materializing, it of course, made sense that this would lead to my first significantly incorrect price prediction in three years for BTC prices. Those that had followed my BTC price predictions for three years knew that I ONLY had issued two buy and two sell opinions for BTC in more than three years, and that after both buy opinions I offered BTC prices near doubled and that after both sell opinions I offered, BTC prices crashed by 50% or more. In fact, the last buy or sell opinion I had issued was to sell BTC at $66,000 in November 2021. Because of my wariness of bankers declaring things that they never do, I felt it irresponsible to issue a buy opinion based upon this unknown, and even though in hindsight, BTC rose considerably in price from November 2022, I still firmly believe that no offered opinion to buy in November 2022 and doing nothing was the right guidance. Why?
Number one, I don’t like taking anything but very educated bets when investing and it would have been a huge gamble back then to have issued a “buy” on BTC, despite its temporary lows, due to the uncertainty of banker behavior. I guess if one wants to fault me, one can fault me for basing a price prediction off of a banker declaration of an impending event, when bankers lie all the time. For example, back in 2007, Italian Central Bankers issued a press release stating that they were going to sell their national gold reserves to pay down their national debt, and gold prices cratered on this declaration. This declaration was a complete, bold-faced lie simply to slam gold prices, and I’m near positive that at the time Central Bankers issued this press release, they knew that there was no chance that they were ever going to sell national gold reserves. And indeed, they never ended up selling a single gold ounce of Italy’s gold reserves.
And this was just one of many, many lies bankers have declared in press releases over the past couple of decades and I had been aware of almost all the lies they had declared. So, again, if you want to fault me for anything, you can fault me for being dumb enough to believe the lies that they were going to enforce MiCA regulations this past February after they lied about the date of the MiCA regs in June and November of 2022. I took a bet that they would not lie three times in a row, and I lost that bet.
Still, perhaps you can credit me for being smart enough to consider the possibility that I should not issue any buy/sell opinion until the February 2023 vote became a reality, which it did not. And though you may at first think that I am just being stubborn about not issuing any buy opinions back in November 2022 as absolutely 100% the correct thing to do, it is not about being stubborn. Many people that have never had a track record of returning positive yields that significantly outperform markets year after year believe that determining the “correctness” of one’s opinion is simply based upon whether it was right or wrong in hindsight. And such people always mistake pure luck for skill. When the outcome of an event upon which the direction of asset prices hinge is completely unknown, then it is ALWAYS smart to avoid buying or selling, or in my case, risking massive gains I produced through previous correct buy and sell opinions on a complete guess.
One has to base a decision to offer a buy or sell opinion, or nothing at all, upon risk/reward setup too, and risk was high back then, and I still believe assessing risk as high to buy BTC back then based upon the uncertainty of the February 2023 vote was absolutely the correct assessment.
Thus, while I’m willing to offer price predictions based upon a bet, I’m never willing to offer much more definitive buy/sell opinions based upon what I believe to be more of a pure gamble than an educated bet with a high probability of the desired outcome. Because of the above unknown, the probability of the desired outcome was no better than a 50/50 bet, and flipping a coin is no way to make investment decisions.
That is why anyone that has listened to my buy/sell opinions for the last three years has only made tons of money following my guidance. Thus, even though my last wrong BTC price prediction had an opportunity cost of missing an immediate price rise and missing profits, my track record for all my buy/sell BTC opinions for the past three years remains perfect, as following my buy/sell opinions for the last three years in BTC yielded a $560,000 profit on an initial $100,000 investment that is still intact to this day, 30 May 2023. As my entire premise was that BTC prices would struggle after the MiCA vote happened, and this has indeed happened after the April vote and May ratification of EU cryptocurrency regulations, this outcome likely would have happened had the vote been ratified in Feb/March 2023, with no significant uptick in BTC prices from November. Just because one guessed right about the timeline of the regs, this doesn’t mean luck equates to being correct. As you can see below, the bulk of BTC’s price move higher from November 2022 to April 2023 happened after the Feb MiCA regulation was postponed again, and I firmly believe that BTC’s price, without this postponement, would never have reached $30k.
Thus, buying BTC on November 2022 lows, in my opinion, was a pure gamble on MiCA regulations being postponed until April, and I’m never willing to issue a buy or sell opinion on a pure guess regarding the outcome of an unknown factor. Sure, some may say that because the regulators lied twice about finally voting on MiCA regulations, guessing they would lie a third time was a “good bet”. I disagree with this assessment. Because if that was indeed a “good bet”, after they lied three times, then guessing they would postpone the vote this past April and that they would lie for a fourth time, should also have been a “good bet”. But yet they finally voted on MiCA regulations this past April.
Luck equates to nothing more than being lucky, and far too many investors equate luck with skill. When lucky investors think they are highly skilled instead of purely lucky in bets they take, this mindset will eventually turn profits into dust and sometimes even into losses while turning losses into greater losses. Very rarely can any investor ride the wave of continuous lucky bets to make and retain big profits.
And I’m never going to issue a buy opinion based upon a guess of an event that has yet to materialize. And I will explain why all BTC investors that bought BTC at the low in November were nothing more than lucky and not skilled. As I’ll explain in the remainder of this article, before this month, not even in April when EU cryptocurrency MiCA regulations finally came to a vote, it was impossible to know two things that turned out to be favorable for higher BTC prices between November and now. And these two unknowns just happened to favor higher interim BTC prices between November and the start of May, but they easily could have turned out to have been extremely detrimental to interim BTC prices. Thus, anyone that bought BTC at the absolute interim low in November was buying completely blind of knowing the outcome of these two unknowns which either could have crashed BTC prices further or drove them higher (as happened) from November 2022. It was pure fortuitous luck that these two unknowns turned into two knowns that favored higher BTC prices. These two unknowns were:
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