There Has Not Been a More Accurate Bitcoin Analyst in the World than ???
with additional loads of important lessons for NON-BTC investors too!
Allow me to explain the cheeky title above. I have no idea if I’ve been the most accurate BTC analyst in the world in the last 12 months. In fact, knowing that there are dozens of other BTC analysts that spend the majority of their time focusing on analyzing bitcoin, whereas I spend the least amount of the time I devote to research and analysis on the specific asset of BTC, I would assume that I have not been. In this article, I will simply lay out the BTC price predictions I have issued since November 2021 on my patreon and substack platforms, all documented, and then you can simply compare the accuracy of my predictions to other analysts out there and wisely arrive at your own conclusion (no self-anointed titles are legitimate anyway!)
However, I will claim the mantle as one of the “most accurate BTC analysts in the world” regarding separating truth from propaganda about BTC. In this arena, I have spent a considerable amount of time researching the most popular narratives about BTC and debunking them on my platform (just search for my podcasts about “the dumbest things” stated about BTC).
And regarding my ability to consistently issue BTC price predictions that have come true for the last 12 rolling months, I will let you in on a secret. This ability has everything to do with my recognition that the state of academia is in a state of utter disrepair and my subsequent decisions, when conducting my analysis, to disregard everything I learned in an academic setting about assessing asset price mechanisms.
This ability has everything to do with taking decades to teach myself about financial reality and the truths about the factors that influence asset prices rather than relying on theoretical, non-applicable nonsense taught by professors inside the ivy league covered walls of university classrooms and the equally terrible nonsense contained in academic textbooks.
Yesterday, in my post here, you received my November end and year-end BTC price predictions. Comically, I actually spend way more time writing these articles than I spend on my BTC price analysis that yields these predictions, perhaps hours more in writing these articles in which I discuss my predictions than analysis. But yet that doesn’t mean that my confidence in my predictions is not solid, as you will discover in the remainder of this article.
It required decades of financial self-education to understand to discard the data over which most academia-trained analysts pore over for hours and to solely focus on a tiny minutiae but very critical set of data undisclosed in any institutional academic classroom around the world. And it is these undisclosed sets of metrics upon which I base my price movement predictions (you can see some of these topics in which I’ve been self-educated by perusing through the curriculum of my upcoming skwealthacademy).
That is why I informed all of you that I only executed 15 minutes of research and analysis this past Tuesday to come to the realization, when BTC was trading near $21,000 that morning, that it was going to crash to $17,000 within weeks. And the ironic thing was that I had scheduled that article for publication on Wednesday, but intuition informed me that I should rush that article out a day early for it be of the highest utility to all my readers.
The only thing my intuition informed me of that my analysis did not, was that the crash was going to happen in days rather than weeks. However, the analysis I conducted to reach this conclusion becomes almost like second nature after knowing what to look for, though for the top-tier university trained, it would likely be similar to looking for a needle in a haystack. I compare my process to the man, Harry Markopolos, that discovered the fraud of the multi-billion dollar Bernie Madoff Ponzi scheme. Markopolos commented that it took him no more than 15-minutes of analysis to understand that Madoff’s fund was a massive Ponzi scheme because he knew exactly what process to undertake in his analysis to either expose Madoff as a criminal fraud or validate him as a legitimate money manager.
I encourage everyone to read this story that revealed that Markopolos slept with a gun under his pillow and regularly checked his car for bombs for years after reporting Madoff’s fraudulent Ponzi scheme to the SEC, and witnessing the SEC doing zero to arrest Madoff. Markopolos feared that someone in the industry would kill him for speaking truth to the dark power that is in charge of the financial industry. This is why I highly encourage everyone reading this article to do everything you can to support those that exhibit principle over money in their business pursuits by continuing to speak truth to power in the financial/investment world. In fact, please comment below if you know of anyone here on substack that fits this description and I will promote his or her newsletter in my next post.
Likewise, when I investigated the Elizabeth Holmes Silicon Valley Theranos multi-billion dollar scam, I immediately knew how to out that scam as a potential investor in no more than 30 minutes of time. In reply to her dubious answer that no one could see the machines that could produce medical lab results using blood droplets due to her need to protect intellectual property, an investor could have countered that he did not need to see the machines, but did require the following actions from Holmes.
Draw a few droplets of blood from me, put them into your machine, and give me the results from a series of blood tests that you claim your machines can produce within the quick time frame you claim your lab machines can yield results as accurate as conventional blood labs that rely on vials of blood.
This simple request would have destroyed Holmes’s fraudulent claims about the capability of her groundbreaking machines as they were never true. For her only option would have been to refuse the request for she knew her machines could not produce the results she claimed they were producing for months on end. And a refusal to do so could have easily then been deduced into the correct conclusion that Holmes was flat out lying about all of her claims. Holmes sent vials, not droplets, of blood drawn from patients to conventional labs to produce her results.
But yet, for some reason, over and over and over again, the word of Silicon Valley venture capitalist Tim Draper that Holmes was of upstanding character convinced investors to throw their common sense out the window, turn into delusional fan girls and refuse to conduct even one hour of basic due diligence on Theranos that would have prevented hundreds of millions of investment dollars from being lost (with some individuals, like media mogul and Rupert Murdoch and US Secretary of Education Betsy DeVos each having invested over $100M in Theranos).
An employee, Tyler Shultz, that worked at Theranos and quickly realized Holmes’s operation was a complete scam could not even convince his own grandfather, Theranos board member and former US Secretary of State George Shultz, of the fraud Holmes was committing that he witnessed with his own eyes. George Shultz actually lawyered up, ratted out and betrayed his own grandson and got him fired from Theranos, and sided with Holmes over his own flesh and blood. This is the delusion that often permeates the investment world.
Since no “journalist” investigating Theranos conducted the above request that would have exposed Holmes within hours, we also no that real journalistic integrity, except the kind that exists on independent media platforms like this one, exists.
P.S. For all non- BTC investors that have read this far, the remainder of this artilce has many super important lessons about investing in general so please do not skip the substantial remaining part of this article below!