For Better Results, Trade BTC, Don’t HODL, and Discount the Opinion of the Mob
Since so few of you have signed up for my substack newsletter as of yet (just a few hundred), I’ll provide some bonus bitcoin analysis that normally I would only publish behind a paywall for my Benefactor level patreons on my patreon platform. A couple of weeks ago, I warned my patrons that BTC’s price had once again reached the high level risk, low reward point that merited serious selling considerations. And for those that heeded my guidance about risk, selling turned out to be the proper move, given BTC’s $14k price movement lower.
Since the low of $55,623 a few days ago, BTC prices rebounded to $60k, providing hope to the HODLers but then has turned down in price again since then, losing a few thousand dollars. I’ve been very critical of the HODLers over the years not because of their commitment to the HODL narrative, but because of their commitment to a HODL narrative that was clearly conjured up by billionaires solely for the benefit of other billionaires. If you don’t understand this, you can view the recent podcasts I’ve posted on my skwealthacademy Rokfin platform that explains this rationale, or better yet, just join my patreon platform (at the Benefactor level) on which I speak of these topics in greater detail. Consequently, though my extremely unpopular opinion that BTC can NOT serve as the monetary savior of the common person, let alone as the savior of anyone dwelling in poverty serves as the constant source for many in the crypto community to denigrate and disparage my opinions, in reality, their opinions make zero sense. Why?
Number one, I’ve never denied the ability of BTC to make people rich. Find one statement anywhere that I’ve ever made in which I stated BTC will not make people rich. You won’t find it because I’ve never stated this. Secondly, Furthermore, my BTC price analysis that I provided to my patrons for the past 12-months likely would hold up against anyone else in the entire world in terms of accuracy (and all predictions were publicly documented either on my YouTube channel or on my patreon platform). My guidance for the past 12 months was not frequent, and did not require a lot of action but was as follows: buy at $20k in November 2020, sell at $58k in April 2021, buy at $29k in July 2021 and sell again at more than $65k, just a couple of weeks ago. So my guidance was not frequent, but was on point more or less to produce much higher yields than HODLing.
Clearly, the intelligent BTC investor would discount the opinion of the mob and simply buy when price risk is low and upside is high and sell when price risk is high and upside is low. I know, easier said than done, right? Nope. It’s easier done than said, if one discounts the opinion of the mob. Of course, I’m never going to be 100% correct on my takes and it’s near impossible for anyone to call the exact tops and bottoms of any asset price. However, that’s why I said it’s easier done than said. One only needs to be close to calling the tops and bottoms, which frankly, isn’t all that hard to do in my opinion, as long as one stays away from the collective opinion of the mob. Thus, the title of this article is “For Better Results, Trade BTC, Don’t HODL, and Discount the Opinion of the Mob”. Simply by trading anywhere near these tops and bottoms, your results will absolutely slaughter the yields of all HODLers.
For example, all my patrons know that last week, when gold was still trading near $1870, I issued an opinion that gold would drop to $1825 to $1845 at some point that week, quite a considerable $25 an ounce drop in price. Gold dropped to a low of $1851 last Friday, just $6 above the range I predicted to which gold would fall. And by the way my patrons took advantage of the gold and silver price rise that preceded the drop by buying GLD and SLV calls that I recommending closing out after they rose to 100% and high double-digit gains respectively. Then today, when gold was trading at $1,818, I issued a warning to my patrons that gold would likely fall to $1,800 before the US thanksgiving holiday this Thursday. Right now, as I type this sentence, gold is trading at $1,805 in US futures markets.
So what’s next for BTC? Honestly, I wouldn’t dive back into buying BTC yet, even though it’s down more than $12,000 since 10 November. Right now, in my opinion, there is too much uncertainty about price direction and too much further potential downside risk. Even if I’m wrong about the reality of further downside risk at the current time (because, to be aboveboard, my confidence about my call being correct revolved around my sell guidance provided to my patrons at over $65,000 a couple of weeks ago), and BTC prices return to $65,000, even at that point, by selling above that price point, we can still wait to conclude that momentum has indeed shifted enough to merit continuing higher prices before purchasing. Consequently, the key is to completely disregard the mob’s opinion to make the right choices at the right time to then have the flexibility to wait price behavior out until another low risk, high reward buying price manifests once again. And this price may be much lower than the current price or possibly higher. This is the smart way to handle the situation, not to listen to the billionaires like Michael Saylor that are trying to exploit the naivete of the most naïve in the BTC community to get everyone to HODL during times of extreme risk (as existed a couple of weeks ago) and also during times of great uncertainty (as exists right now).