BTC and ETH Investors, Ignore the Critical Lessons of My 2021 DOGE Article at Massive Risk to Your Future Financial Health
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On 11 May 2021, when DOGE coin was trading in the $0.47 to $0.52 range, I published an article right here on my substack platform in which I addressed the 41% crash in DOGE coin price to Elon Musk’s disparaging comments about DOGE on the US comedy sketch show Saturday Night Live. This is exactly what I wrote back then:
“In reaction [to the DOGE coin price dive], many irrational DOGE coin HODLers took to the internet to express support for a long-term hold of DOGE coin and vomited a slew of irrational beliefs. To paraphrase some of these irrational beliefs, here are some:
(1) DOGE is still going to $1.00 no doubt, and the price crash is just an opportunity to buy even more before it soars to $1.00.
(2) DOGE is exactly the same as BTC, DOGE is for real and I’m in for the long term.
(3) People think DOGE is a joke coin but it was never started as a joke but as a serious cryptocurrency. People just forwarded the narrative of DOGE as a joke coin to hide the fact that it is a serious cryptocurrency and to prevent other people from getting in on the action. Buy all dips!
Let’s start with the first statement that DOGE is still going to recover and rise to an irrational DOGE coin price of $1.00. In the Bubble of Everything, too many people are now on board that every single asset price can only move higher, that no extended downward price movements are possible and that every single price dip, especially massive price dips, are merely opportunities to average down in price in buying the asset… I never have a problem with higher price predictions because honestly, I have no idea where the price of DOGE heads from here, though if I had to guess, it would not be higher than its previous high.
However, the thing that irks me to no end are the posers that present themselves as experts, incessantly push higher prices for whatever cryptocurrency is the flavor of the month, and almost NEVER speak about any risk of buying into them simply because they want to drive prices higher to recoup losses they suffered from not treating the asset as a speculation as should have been done. To express unbridled optimism with no reservations that a 41% price crash is a can’t lose opportunity to average down is not just absurd, but extremely dangerous to highly impressionable people that may end up dumping their entire life savings into an investment without a basic understanding of the risks involved. The massive risk embedded in even the current day $0.47 DOGE coin price, despite its recent price crash, could yield yet much lower prices and higher prices are never guaranteed.”
A Dissenting Take is Not Automatically a “Stupid” Take
The two most important takeaway points from my May 2021 Doge coin price analysis are the points marked in bold, because one would be well served to understand these lessons as it applies to BTC and ETH as well. I did not create the narratives of points (1), (2) and (3), but those were the dominant narratives I pulled from DOGE discussion boards at the time.
There literally was a belief that the huge dip in DOGE price was an almost risk-free opportunity to get on board at around $0.50 before DOGE would double to $1.00 per coin. And as I mentioned, in bold script above, the element that annoyed me to no end about this narrative were “the posers that present themselves as experts…almost never speak of any risk of buying into them.” Not only did I speak about the absence of risk that dominated the narrative of buying DOGE at $0.50 a coin, but I offered my own analysis that there was “massive risk embedded in even the current day $0.47 coin price.”
And believe it or not, just because DOGE coin rose by a few pennies in the hours after I published this article, DOGE coin owners and HODLers ridiculed me for what they called a “stupid take by someone that understands nothing about DOGE” simply because I wasn’t invested in it. And this is why I’ve always stated that if I wanted to make millions of dollars a year, as is the income of some of these crypto newsletter writers, the easiest way to do so is by just feeding people what they want to hear. The truth-telling business has never been a profitable game.
My two biggest problems with “crypto to the moon” believers are the following:
(1) The inability to see the forest from the trees and that every micro-move proves they are right and everyone else is wrong; and
(2) Their naivete when following big whales that reinforce delusional beliefs because the whales are trying to influence hundreds of thousands of naïve investors to move prices higher so they can recoup their losses and exit
Adapt or Die
In fact, an excellent companion warning to my DOGE article, would be this article, titled, “Adapt or Die”. From the below, chart, we can clearly see what has happened with DOGE coin prices since my assessment of future DOGE coin prices.
To the DOGE investors that thought I was “hating” on DOGE back then and misunderstood its potential, this will be a good example to learn that just because someone dissents with a view does not mean they are “hating” on a view. It can simply mean that they spent a lot of time researching a view and came to a dissenting conclusion that just may be worth considering before dismissing it. Crypto HODLers are some of the most stubborn people in the world when it comes to sticking to a belief and refusing to ever incorporate new information into altering and changing this belief, a trait that can be fatal to investors. Besides Cathie Wood of ARKK investments, I’ve rarely encountered another group of investors so committed to never changing an investment thesis, even when additional information suggests it should be changed. Recall my 12 January article titled, “Is it Time to Abandon the ARKK Before the Ark Sinks?” Since I published that warning to abandon the ARKK ship, the ARKK ETF has plummeted an additional whopping 43.27% in the last four months.
Thus, for those that falsely believe that my take is that there is no profit to be made from crypto, clearly they don’t understand my stance. I’ve always stated that crypto traders understand crypto price mechanisms in ways HODLers never will. Though I’ve always held to my theory (and yes it still is an unproven theory) that BTC is a Trojan Horse of the Central Bankers to increase acceptance levels of a totalitarian digital only currency world, I’ve still always acknowledged the enormous profit potential of trading BTC (as I’ve issued BTC buying guidance to my patreons at $20k in November of 2020, selling guidance at $58k in April 2021, buying guidance at sub $30k in July 2021 and selling guidance at $66k in November 2021).
That said, my patrons know that I warned against buying BTC when it reached $48k at the end of March as I stated that there was a very low possibility of BTC breaching $50k to continue higher, and again, warned against buying in the second week of April, when it climbed back to above $43k. Big BTC whales with very loud voices, worried about recent losses, continually sell these dips as “opportunities to buy more BTC” to their millions of followers (and you know who they are); however, they will never provide any intelligent insightful analysis about future price behavior as they have one mission only, which is not in anyone’s best interest except their own. Unfortunately, just as the big DOGE holders deceived their followers and ranted about $0.50 Doge prices in May 2021 as an “enormous opportunity” to accumulate DOGE to all the crypto investors that, in their words, “missed the previous ramp ups in DOGE prices”, prominent price pushers that provide zero insightful analysis of risk also exist in the ETH and BTC communities as well. My current patrons know that on the morning of 25 April, as BTC was trading near $39k, I warned them of the $35k level now being in the sights of those that wish to take BTC prices lower.
As of right now, BTC is still trading around $39,300 so I can’t be positive without the benefit of additional days of data of that price level manifesting at this very moment. But some warning signs appeared a couple days ago of lower possible prices and I believe in discussing all warning signs when they occur, even if I have to wait to see if they strengthen or weaken over the next few days, simply because the voices of those of us that provide warnings about lower prices in crypto markets are drowned out by the “crypto to the moon” crowd 999 times out of 1000.
Separate the Wheat from the Chaff Right Now
Thus, in the end, follow the people everyone else follows for your crypto (or gold/ silver/ commodity) advice, and most likely you will follow these people into a financial abyss from which it will be hard to recover. No analyst will be right 100% of the time, including yours truly, and it’s easy to dismiss the analysts that offer dissenting perspectives from the consensus views offered by the loudest voices in the sector. However, it’s quite a simple task to understand who to follow and who to ignore. My track record of price predictions in many different asset categories is easily discoverable right here on my substack platform. And so are the track records of other financial analysts that also provide analysis/predictions on this platform. To find the ones you should be following from the ones you should stop following, simply review all of our predictions for the last couple of years and this will enable you to separate the wheat from the chaff. You ‘ll find there’s a lot of chaff out there that should be avoided at all costs, despite a huge following.
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Thanks for the reminders, John. I just became a patron, mostly because I find myself often agreeing with you, and it's nice to have some intellectual/trading allies one can interact with.
As thy say John "the proof is in the pudding" so thumbs up amigo!